| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80% or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95% or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70% or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75% or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85% or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what share of the vote Greg Abbott will receive in the Texas Republican gubernatorial primary; it matters because the result indicates his strength inside the GOP and affects the likelihood of a runoff and where the party's voters stand ahead of the general election.
Greg Abbott is the incumbent Republican governor of Texas running for re-nomination against one or more challengers; Texas primaries can produce runoffs if no candidate reaches the threshold required by state law. Historical primary results for incumbents and the composition of the challenger field provide useful context for interpreting market prices over time.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about Abbott's final certified vote share within the predefined outcome ranges; they should be read as evolving signals that incorporate new information, and you should consult the market's resolution rules to know exactly which official tally will be used.
Resolution normally relies on the official certified result specified in the contract (typically the Texas Secretary of State or the canvass specified by the market). Check the market's resolution rules for the exact source and whether it uses initial returns or the certified canvass.
This market divides the range of possible vote shares into six discrete outcome buckets; each outcome corresponds to a defined percentage interval. The outcome whose interval contains the official certified percentage will be the winning contract—see the market page for the precise interval boundaries.
That depends on the market's resolution rules: if the contract covers only the primary vote share on the initial primary date, runoff results are irrelevant; if it explicitly includes runoff tallies or a subsequent vote, the contract will say so. Always confirm the contract wording before trading.
Large movements typically follow the entry or exit of a prominent challenger, major endorsements, damaging news or revelations, strong debate performances, or sudden changes in turnout expectations driven by other races or external events.
Most markets wait for an official, certified result per their resolution rules; delays or legal challenges can postpone final resolution until the authoritative source publishes a certified count. The market platform should document how it handles exceptional circumstances.