| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether the Scottish Government will formally call a referendum on independence to occur in 2026. The question matters because a referendum would have major constitutional, political and economic implications for Scotland, the rest of the UK, and external partners.
Scotland held an independence referendum in 2014 that resulted in a vote to remain in the United Kingdom; since then Brexit and shifts in party politics have kept the issue active. The Scottish National Party has repeatedly sought a new referendum, while UK government consent and legal mechanisms (notably the Section 30 convention) remain central to whether a lawful referendum can proceed. Political dynamics, leadership changes, and public sentiment continue to shape the timetable and feasibility of any future vote.
Market prices reflect the collective, continuously updating judgments of traders about whether a referendum will be called in 2026; they incorporate public polling, political developments, and legal signals but are not guarantees. Use them as a real-time indicator of perceived likelihood and responsiveness to new information, not as a substitute for legal or political analysis.
It refers to whether a referendum on Scottish independence is formally announced and scheduled to take place during the calendar year 2026, typically meaning the Scottish Government has taken the legal and political steps to set a 2026 date or has secured UK authorization for that year.
The Scottish Government can pass Holyrood legislation and request a Section 30 order, but a legally recognized UK-wide transfer of competence normally requires agreement from the UK Government or primary legislation by the UK Parliament; political opposition at Westminster can therefore block the usual route to a consensual referendum.
A lawful route generally involves the Scottish Government requesting a Section 30 order to temporarily transfer the power to hold the referendum, or the UK Parliament legislating to authorize it; attempts to hold a referendum without UK consent could prompt judicial review and legal uncertainty.
Election results can create or undermine a political mandate for a referendum; a UK general election or significant shifts in party control may change Westminster’s willingness to grant authorization or alter strategic calculations about timing and risk.
Expect a defined campaign period with intensified polling, legal and constitutional scrutiny, negotiations over framing and practical arrangements, and rapid market and political reactions as participants price in potential outcomes and transitional questions (currency, EU engagement, devolution of powers).