| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Grok | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ChatGPT | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dola | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Claude | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gemini | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| GLM | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kimi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which AI will be identified as the runner-up for the current week on KALSHI's "Runner-Up AI this week" event. It matters because it aggregates real-time expectations about which AI is gaining visibility or performing well in the short term.
Weekly runner-up markets typically reflect short-term shifts driven by model releases, benchmark updates, media attention, or deployment news rather than long-term research trajectories. Historically, outcomes in similar markets have moved quickly in response to single news events (papers, demos, or outages) and by shifts in community attention across AI vendors and open-source projects.
Market odds are a summary of trader consensus and update as new information arrives; they should be read as the market's current collective view about which named AI will finish second under the market's rules. Because this market closes at a time specified on KALSHI, odds can change rapidly in response to late-breaking announcements or clarifications of event criteria.
The runner-up is the AI name or entry that is adjudicated as finishing second according to the specific settlement criteria listed on the market page. Check the market's description on KALSHI for the precise metric or decision process used to determine placements.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a named AI or entry included by the market creator; traders select the outcome they expect to be the runner-up. The exact names and any aliases are shown on the market page.
The market's closing time is marked on KALSHI and is currently listed as TBD; settlement occurs after the market closes and the designated source or adjudicator publishes the official placement, following KALSHI's settlement rules.
Tie-breaking and ambiguity procedures are handled according to the market's rule text on KALSHI; common approaches include relying on the event organizer's official announcement or predefined tie-break rules in the contract. Always consult the market's official rules for the definitive procedure.
Announcements to watch include model/version launches, independent benchmark reports, major product integrations or partnerships, public demos at conferences, and any outages or controversies affecting a candidate—each can materially shift market expectations for who becomes runner-up.