| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Feb 15, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Pierre Poilievre will be out as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by the event's settlement. Leadership changes in a major party matter because they alter policy direction, campaign strategy, and parliamentary dynamics.
Pierre Poilievre became leader of the federal Conservative Party following the party's leadership process in 2022 and serves as the party's federal leader and Leader of the Opposition. His tenure has been shaped by debates over party strategy, electoral performance, internal caucus dynamics, and media coverage, all of which affect pressure for continuity or change.
Prices in a prediction market aggregate participants' expectations about future events and update as new information arrives; they are indicative signals, not guarantees, and can move quickly on authoritative announcements or major developments.
For this market, 'out' generally means he is no longer the Conservative Party leader due to resignation, removal, or replacement following a leadership process; final resolution follows the exchange's published settlement rules and official party confirmation.
A public announcement of a future resignation typically changes market expectations, but resolution will depend on the official date and whether the party has formally recognized a successor by the market's settlement; check the exchange's closure and settlement criteria.
Possible mechanisms include a leadership review or confidence vote as defined by party bylaws, a formal leadership contest triggered by rules or resignations, or other actions by the party's national council or caucus depending on internal procedures.
A significantly poor federal election or by-election showing, sustained declines in public support, major fundraising withdrawals, or large-scale defections or credible scandals can increase pressure for a leadership change.
Authoritative signals include official statements from the Conservative Party, a formal announcement from Pierre Poilievre or recognized interim/new leader communications, and documented actions by party bodies; media reports and leaks are informative but should be confirmed against official party communications.