| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael López Aliaga | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keiko Fujimori | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alfonso López Chau | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jorge Nieto | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wolfgang Grozo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| George Forsyth | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Carlos Álvarez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ricardo Belmont | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be identified as the winner of the first round of Peru's presidential election; the outcome determines whether the race is decided immediately or proceeds to a runoff and signals immediate political direction.
Peru's presidential contests frequently feature multiple candidates and shifting alliances, with elections occurring against a backdrop of economic, social, and institutional challenges. The country's electoral administration produces provisional counts on election night and a later official validation, and political volatility means momentum can shift rapidly in the weeks before voting.
Market odds are a real-time aggregation of participant expectations and update as new information arrives; treat them as a dynamic indicator of how traders interpret available data, not as an official or final determination of the election outcome.
Settlement will follow the contract terms and the official determination by Peru's electoral authorities; consult the market's specification for whether it settles on the candidate proclaimed by authorities as first in the first-round count or on other defined criteria.
The national electoral body responsible for vote tabulation provides provisional counts, and the electoral jury or equivalent authority handles validation and final proclamation; markets settle based on the official result these institutions publish.
If official validation is delayed by recounts or legal processes, settlement will await the authoritative resolution specified by the market rules; provisional night counts may differ from the final certified outcome.
Under Peru's rules, a candidate can win outright in the first round by obtaining an absolute majority of valid votes; if that occurs, there is no runoff and the market will settle according to the candidate the authorities recognize as the first-round victor.
Watch polling updates and methodology changes, major endorsements or alliance shifts, breaking legal rulings affecting candidates, economic data or shocks, and regional turnout reports or anomalous vote-count patterns.