| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael López Aliaga | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keiko Fujimori | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alfonso López Chau | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jorge Nieto | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wolfgang Grozo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| George Forsyth | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Carlos Álvarez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ricardo Belmont | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which candidate will finish second in the first round of the Peru presidential election. The second-place finisher is important because it determines who advances to a runoff and shapes coalition dynamics for the final contest.
Peru uses a two-round presidential system where, if no candidate wins an absolute majority in the first round, the top two vote-getters proceed to a runoff. Recent Peruvian elections have featured fragmented party systems, strong regional variation in support, and frequent late shifts in voter preferences, all of which affect first-round rankings. Economic concerns, corruption scandals, and shifting endorsements commonly reshape the field in the weeks before voting.
Market prices represent the collective judgment of participants about which named candidate will be second in the official first-round tally and update as new information arrives. Treat prices as real-time signals that can change quickly with polls, turnout news, or official updates rather than fixed forecasts.
The market will settle based on the official first-round results published by Peru's electoral authorities; settlement timing follows the market operator's rules and typically occurs after official certification of the count.
Second place is the candidate with the second-highest number of valid votes in the officially certified first-round tally; blank or invalid ballots are not counted toward candidate rankings.
In the event of a tie, the market will follow the official determination and any remedial actions (recounts, legal rulings) by Peru's electoral authorities and settle according to that official outcome.
Yes—if a withdrawn candidate remains on the ballot and receives votes counted in the official first-round results, the market will reflect the official vote totals regardless of withdrawal status.
Late polls, major endorsements or alliance shifts, debate performances, corruption allegations or legal developments, and reports about turnout or regional vote counts are the most common drivers of price movement.