| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Grégoire, 15%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rachida Dati, 10-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Grégoire, 5-10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Grégoire, 0-5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rachida Dati, 5-10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rachida Dati, 0-5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Grégoire, 10-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rachida Dati, 15%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how large the margin of victory will be between the top two candidates in the first round of the Paris mayoral election; that margin signals the relative strength of front-runners and can shape runoff dynamics and coalition bargaining.
Paris uses a multi-stage municipal electoral process in which first-round results determine whether a list wins outright or whether additional rounds and list alliances occur; the size of the first-round margin matters because it influences negotiation leverage and headline narratives. Historical first-round margins in major cities have varied with turnout, national political cycles, and local issues, so the Paris margin often reflects both local campaigns and broader political trends.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations about which margin outcome will materialize and typically move as new information (polls, endorsements, turnout signals) arrives; use them as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast.
It measures the difference in vote share between the first-place and second-place candidates/lists in the first round of the Paris municipal election, reflecting how large the lead is before any potential runoff or realignment.
The first round occurs on the official municipal election date set by French authorities; this market's close time will be determined relative to that official schedule and to the certified first-round count, and is currently listed as TBD.
Mergers or withdrawals can consolidate votes around fewer lists, narrowing or widening the margin depending on which lists combine and how their supporters respond, so announced alliances before the ballot can materially alter expected margins.
Turnout patterns across arrondissements are crucial: higher mobilization in areas favorable to a given candidate can expand their lead, while uneven turnout can produce unexpected swings in the margin compared with polls that assume uniform participation.
Track local and late-release polls, formal endorsements or list agreements, major campaign events or controversies, turnout indicators (e.g., early voting or municipal mobilization efforts), and national developments that might influence voter sentiment in Paris.