| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Grégoire, 15-20% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Grégoire, 25%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Grégoire, 5-10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Grégoire, 10-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rachida Dati wins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Grégoire, 20-25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Grégoire, 0-5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market concerns how large the winner's margin will be in the Paris mayoral runoff and why that margin matters for the winner's governing mandate and political signaling. The size of the margin affects perceptions of mandate strength, coalition stability, and future local policy leverage.
Paris mayoral races use a two-round system: if no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, the top lists/candidates advance to a runoff where vote transfers and local alliances decide the winner. Historical runoffs in Paris have been shaped by arrondissement-level variation, voter turnout, and inter-party negotiations between rounds. This market closes and settles based on the officially certified runoff result (closing date TBD).
Market prices aggregate trader information and news related to the expected margin and should be read as a consensus signal rather than a prediction guarantee. Prices update as new information arrives (polls, endorsements, turnout shifts), so they reflect the market’s collective view at each moment.
It refers to the difference between the winner's and the runner-up's share of the valid votes in the official, certified runoff result; the market settles based on that certified margin.
The market will close and settle after the runoff when the official certified result is published and any recounts or legal challenges are resolved; the exact closing date/time is listed as TBD and follows the exchange's settlement rules.
The two candidates (or lists) that qualify for the runoff are decisive, plus eliminated first-round candidates whose endorsements or vote transfers can shift the margin; major local party machines and municipal alliances are also important to monitor.
Endorsements and list mergers can consolidate votes and widen a candidate's margin, while the absence of expected transfers or strategic withdrawals can narrow it; locally negotiated pacts and how voters respond to them are key drivers of these effects.
Prioritize recent municipal-level polls, arrondissement breakdowns, and turnout scenarios over single national snapshots; treat late endorsements, ground mobilization reports, and turnout indicators as highly impactful in the runoff period.