| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Caceres | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| David Oxman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Robin Toldens | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sharif Street | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Morgan Cephas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chris Rabb | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ala Stanford | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District; it aggregates trader expectations about the primary outcome and highlights shifts in perceived frontrunners. It matters because the nominee becomes the party's general-election candidate and shapes campaign dynamics in the district.
PA-03 is a U.S. House district whose partisan composition and electorate have been shaped by redistricting and local demographic trends; those structural features influence who is viable in a Democratic primary. Nomination fights for House seats often feature local elected officials, activists, and newcomers, and are decided by a combination of name recognition, endorsements, turnout, and campaign resources.
Market prices reflect the collective, real-time judgment of traders in response to new information such as endorsements, fundraising reports, polls, and withdrawals. Treat prices as a dynamic signal that summarizes available information rather than a definitive prediction.
The market close is currently listed as TBD; closing typically occurs at a predefined deadline tied to certification or the primary. A close freezes prices and locks in the market's final consensus at that moment.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific possible nominee or to categorical options provided by the market (for example, 'other' or similar). Check the market page for the current list of named candidates and any category labels.
Use the market as one complementary input: it aggregates many signals quickly, while polls measure voter intention in a sample and fundraising shows operational strength. Compare trends across these sources and watch for consistent movement driven by new, verifiable information.
Prices typically respond to candidate withdrawals or entries, major endorsements, large fundraising hauls or financial reports, credible polling releases, legal rulings affecting the ballot, and unexpected local events that change voter preferences.
Volume measures trading activity and gives a sense of liquidity and attention: higher volume usually means prices reflect more active information aggregation. Use volume alongside the number of distinct traders and recent price stability to assess how robust the market signal is.