| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsey Ferreira | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Greg Landsman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic Party's official nominee in Ohio's 1st Congressional District (OH-01). The nominee determines who appears on the general-election ballot for Democrats in that district, shaping the competitive dynamic there.
OH-01 is a U.S. House district in Ohio with a mix of urban and suburban communities; its partisan balance and geographic boundaries have shifted with recent redistricting cycles. Local party organization, candidate recruitment, and turnout dynamics in the district typically play large roles in determining primary outcomes, and national political trends can amplify local effects.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about who will be the official Democratic nominee and update as new information arrives. Because prices move in real time and can be affected by liquidity, they should be read as indications of the market's consensus view rather than fixed predictions of vote totals.
Resolution timing depends on the market's settlement rules; commonly the market uses the date of official certification of the primary or the party's formal nomination. Check the event's contract page for the precise settlement trigger.
The market will follow the event's published resolution criteria, which typically treat the party's formally certified nominee—whether chosen by primary, convention, or official replacement—as the outcome. Consult the exchange's rules for how alternative nomination methods are handled.
Most markets resolve to whoever is the Democratic Party's official, certified nominee at the time defined in the contract; if a replacement process occurs, the formally designated replacement becomes the nominee for settlement purposes. Ambiguities are resolved per the exchange's adjudication procedures.
Factors include localized voter preferences across neighborhoods within the district, candidates' local networks and endorsements, ground game effectiveness in turnout and outreach, and how well a candidate's message resonates with primary voters on district-specific issues.
Low or zero trading volume means limited liquidity and that prices (if any) may reflect a small number of trades or initial indications rather than broad information. Exercise caution: price movements can be more volatile and less informative until trading activity increases.