| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ritchie Torres | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Blake | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Democratic nominee for New York's 15th Congressional District. The nominee matters because, in many districts, the primary winner effectively becomes the general-election frontrunner and shapes local policy priorities.
New York's 15th is a congressional district whose boundaries and partisan composition can shift after redistricting; local demographics, machine politics, and community organizations have historically shaped nominations. Nomination contests can be decided by a primary election, a party convention or committee process in special-circumstance races, and are influenced by incumbency, endorsements and turnout.
Market prices aggregate traders' assessments of who will be officially certified as the Democratic nominee by the relevant authority and by the market's settlement conditions. Prices will move as campaign events, official filings and certification updates arrive.
The market will settle based on the event's stated settlement conditions, typically when the appropriate certifying authority (e.g., New York State or local Board of Elections or an official party body in a special selection) declares and certifies the nominee or when the market's closing conditions are met. Check this event's page and state election calendars for specific certification timelines.
It resolves to whichever listed outcome is the person officially recognized as the Democratic nominee for NY-15 by the certifying authority specified in the market rules; traders should read the event description for how 'nominee' is defined for settlement.
If a candidate is removed from the ballot through a petition challenge or fails to meet filing requirements, that changes the field and therefore the market's likely outcomes; such administrative actions are treated as news that can materially change the market prior to settlement.
An incumbent withdrawal can convert a predictable primary into a competitive open-seat contest and may trigger different nomination methods (e.g., special primary or party committee selection) depending on timing; traders should watch official notices from the party and election authorities announcing the replacement mechanism.
Pay attention to timely signals such as local endorsements (borough or city political leaders), campaign finance filings showing recent fundraising and expenditures, turnout and absentee ballot patterns in the district, major debate or forum performances, and any legal filings or Board of Elections bulletins affecting candidacy status.