| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Lasher | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alex Bores | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jack Schlossberg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| George Conway | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the candidate who secures the second-highest vote count in the Democratic primary for New York's 12th Congressional District. It matters because NY-12, covering much of Manhattan's Upper East Side and West Side, is a heavily Democratic district where the primary result is often functionally equivalent to the general election outcome.
The district has historically been a competitive landscape for prominent Democratic figures, frequently seeing high-profile races and intense intra-party competition. Following redistricting cycles, the shifting demographics and donor bases within the district significantly influence which candidates emerge as viable challengers. Voters here tend to be highly engaged, making the margin between primary contenders a reflection of broader ideological currents within the party.
The market prices reflect the collective assessment of which candidates possess the campaign infrastructure, endorsements, and voter support necessary to secure the runner-up position behind the primary winner.
The 2nd place candidate is determined by the official canvass of the primary election results, specifically by identifying the person with the second-highest total of individual votes cast.
Candidates who withdraw from the race before the primary election typically remain on the ballot if they have already qualified, and their votes will still be counted.
NY-12 Congressional primaries follow standard plurality rules; this market is based on the final total vote count, not an elimination-based ranking system.
The incumbent usually commands a significant base, effectively turning the race for 2nd place into a competition among challengers to see who can consolidate the remaining anti-incumbent or alternative-ideological vote.
The NY-12 electorate is characterized by high levels of education and political activism, making it a bellwether for progressive and mainstream Democratic party sentiment in urban centers.