| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Lasher | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Erik Bottcher | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Julie Menin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alex Bores | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Liam Elkind | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Carolyn Maloney | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lina Khan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jack Schlossberg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cameron Kasky | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| George Conway | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brad Hoylman-Sigal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Scott Stringer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keith Powers | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Liz Krueger | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gale Brewer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Andrew Cuomo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cynthia Nixon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brad Lander | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Laura Dunn | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Democratic nominee for New York's 12th Congressional District; the nominee will determine who represents the party on the general-election ballot and shapes the race's dynamics. It matters to voters, parties, and outside groups planning resources for the general election.
NY-12's nomination can be shaped by recent retirements, redistricting, or incumbent strength, and fields in congressional primaries often include a mix of established officeholders, local activists, and newcomers. Local political networks, fundraising capacity, and issue alignment with district voters have historically influenced outcomes, and a large candidate list can produce a fragmented primary contest.
Market prices reflect the aggregate, real-time judgment of participants about which listed outcome will prevail and update as news arrives; interpret them as a dynamic indicator of relative likelihood among the named candidates, not a prediction certificate.
The nomination will be decided according to the official Democratic primary or nominating procedure for NY-12 as set by New York election authorities; this market's closing or resolution will follow the market operator's rules once an official outcome is certified or the close date is set, so check the market platform and the state election calendar.
Each outcome corresponds to a named individual who could be the Democratic nominee; the market will resolve in favor of the candidate officially declared the nominee by the appropriate election or certification process.
Handling of withdrawals depends on the platform's resolution rules—some markets update listings or suspend trading on withdrawn outcomes while others wait for official certification—so monitor platform notices and official candidate filings for how this market will be adjusted.
Relevant patterns include the advantage often held by incumbents or well-known local officials, the impact of endorsements and coordinated party efforts, and how a crowded field can split support and produce unpredictable results; individual elections can vary based on redistricting and local political shifts.
Influential factors commonly include local party organizations and county leaders, prominent elected officials in the district or city, labor unions, community and advocacy groups active in NY-12, and national Democratic organizations when they invest resources.