| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Goldman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alexa Avilés | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brad Lander | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yuh-Line Niou | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cameron Kasky | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will become the Democratic nominee for New York's 10th Congressional District. The nomination shapes who will represent the district on the general-election ballot and can influence House control and local policy priorities.
NY-10 is a U.S. House district in New York whose precise boundaries and partisan dynamics have shifted with recent redistricting cycles; the primary process decides the party’s standard-bearer for the general election. Local demographics, intra-party coalitions, and institutional endorsements have historically been important in determining primary outcomes in New York congressional races.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations at a moment in time and update as new information arrives; they are indicators of perceived likelihoods rather than guarantees. Use the market alongside polling, fundraising, endorsements, and on-the-ground reporting to form a fuller view.
The listed close time is TBD; actual market closure and resolution follow the exchange’s rules and the official nomination process. Resolution typically occurs after an official winner is declared or certified by election authorities, but the exact timing depends on vote reporting and the exchange’s settlement procedures.
The market contains five distinct outcomes that correspond to specific named candidates or a catch-all outcome as defined by the market creator. Check the market's outcome labels on the platform to see which individual candidates or categories are included.
Key movers include new endorsements, major fundraising reports, published polls covering the primary, court rulings affecting ballots, high-profile campaign events or controversies, and reports of turnout or ground game strength in the district.
A withdrawal typically causes traders to re-rate remaining outcomes and can shift prices quickly; how the market treats the withdrawn candidate depends on whether the candidate formally leaves the ballot and the exchange’s event rules. Read the market rules to understand whether withdrawals change resolution criteria.
Use the market as one real-time signal and supplement it with recent local polling, fundraising disclosures, endorsement lists, on-the-ground reporting about turnout and organizing, and official ballot or legal updates to form a comprehensive view.