| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony D’Esposito | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Don Clavin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dennis McGrath | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brian Miller | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Martin Smithmyer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marvin Suber Williams | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Republican nominee in New York's 4th Congressional District. The nominee determines who will represent the Republican Party on the general election ballot and shapes local and national campaign dynamics.
NY-04 is a suburban Long Island district where local issues, demographic shifts, and party organization shape competitive primaries. Nomination contests there attract attention from county and state party groups and can be influenced by endorsements, fundraising, and turnout patterns.
Prices in this market are a real-time, collective signal about which candidate traders expect to be officially certified as the Republican nominee; treat them as a dynamic indicator that updates as new information arrives.
This market offers three outcome slots, each corresponding to a specific Republican contender as named on the market page; the winning outcome will be the candidate who is officially certified as the party nominee.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page. Settlement will occur after the Republican nominee is officially recognized and certified according to the market's settlement rules—typically following the primary or the party's official selection process.
Settlement follows the market contract: the nominee is the individual officially recognized by the relevant election or party authority (for example, certification by state election officials or the party body designated to select a nominee if no primary occurs).
If a listed candidate withdraws or is disqualified before settlement, the market will be resolved according to its rules; in practice that can mean the remaining candidate outcomes stay active and settlement uses the officially certified nominee, so track official notices and market rule updates.
Key movers include endorsements, major fundraising announcements, polling or internal campaign releases, notable campaign events or gaffes, legal rulings about ballot access, and sudden shifts in campaign staffing or strategy.