| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Beat: 2.6263 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the observable market price for NVIDIA's H200 Compute product will be higher or lower by Mar 27, 2026 compared to the contract's reference price. It matters because H200 pricing is a signal of enterprise AI demand, supply conditions, and vendor pricing strategy.
The NVIDIA H200 is a data‑center accelerator targeted at large AI training and inference workloads and follows prior generations such as the H100; its list and street prices have been shaped by rapid demand from hyperscalers, cloud providers, and AI startups. Pricing history for datacenter GPUs shows sensitivity to NVIDIA product announcements, contract deals with OEMs and cloud vendors, supply constraints at fabs, and competition from other accelerator vendors. Market participants watch public MSRP, reseller listings, and wholesale contract reports to form views.
Market prices on this contract reflect participants' collective expectation about whether the H200 price will be up or down at the specified settlement point; these prices update as new information arrives but are not guarantees of the future outcome. Always consult the event's posted settlement definition to understand exactly what price measure will be used for final determination.
The outcome will be determined by comparing a specifically defined settlement price on or by Mar 27, 2026 to the contract's reference price; the exact quote source, time, and calculation method are specified in the market's contract details on the exchange and govern settlement.
The contract lists the baseline reference price used for comparison (for example an initial listing price or a quoted market price at a defined timestamp); check the market page or contract specification to see which baseline was chosen when the market was created.
The event's settlement definition will specify which H200 variants are included (e.g., module part number, memory/configuration); if the description is silent, the exchange's contract rules explain the default identification method—review the event page for precise SKU coverage.
Yes—public NVIDIA announcements, OEM pricing agreements, or large reseller deals can move market prices and affect the observed settlement price if they alter the quoted price source by the settlement time; traders should monitor official releases and major reseller listings.
Settlement disputes and rule interpretations are governed by the exchange's published rulebook and contract specifications; consult the event's documentation on the exchange site and contact Kalshi support or the exchange's dispute resolution channel for formal inquiries.