| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Beat: 0.8983 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the quoted price for NVIDIA A100 SXM4 compute capacity will be higher or lower by Mar 27, 2026; it matters because that direction is a compact signal about AI/HPC demand, supply conditions, and hardware lifecycle timing.
The A100 (Ampere) GPU in the SXM4 form factor is widely used in datacenter AI training and high-performance computing; its price movements capture both primary OEM pricing and secondary-market dynamics. Since its introduction, A100 inventory, successor-product announcements, and large-scale cloud deployments have been the main drivers of its market value. Traders should treat this market as a directional bet on those interacting forces rather than a forecast of absolute values.
Market odds aggregate participant expectations about whether the reference price will be higher or lower on the specified date; they are a real-time consensus indicator, not a definitive prediction. Always consult the event page for the official reference price definition and settlement rules before trading.
The event outcome will be based on the reference price definition and comparison method stated on the event page (e.g., a quoted list price, a specific market index, or a published secondary-market benchmark) and whether that reference is higher or lower on Mar 27, 2026; check the event description for the exact settlement rule.
The phrase refers to the particular price series named in the Kalshi event description—this could be a vendor list price, a reseller transaction benchmark, or a cloud compute-hour equivalent—so traders should read the event's measurement definition to know which price is being compared.
Monitor NVIDIA earnings and product announcements, major cloud provider procurement reports and price changes, large AI model deployment news, notable secondary-market inventory listings or auctions, and supply-chain updates (foundry or logistics disruptions).
NVIDIA’s pricing and inventory policies, large cloud providers and hyperscalers (whose buying and instance pricing affect demand), OEMs and system integrators, major enterprise buyers executing refreshes, and secondary resellers are the primary influences.
If the market close or settlement details are not yet finalized, follow the event page for updates and be prepared for official definitions to be posted; until the closure rules are published, directional positions carry additional timing risk, so manage exposure and check for announcements that specify exact settlement mechanics tied to Mar 27, 2026.