| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Democratic party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks who will win the North Dakota U.S. Senate seat up in the 2028 general election. It matters because that seat will help determine the partisan balance of the Senate and represent North Dakota’s interests on energy, agriculture, and federal funding.
North Dakota is a small, sparsely populated state with an economy concentrated in agriculture and energy (oil, gas, and growing wind development), and it has voted reliably Republican in recent federal elections. Incumbency, candidate recruitment, and local economic conditions have historically shaped outcomes more than national trends, though national political tides can influence turnout and margins.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives (announcements, polling, fundraising, endorsements, etc.). Use prices as a real-time signal of the market’s consensus, remembering they change with new developments and do not guarantee a final result.
This market covers the North Dakota U.S. Senate seat on the 2028 ballot; as of early 2026 the incumbent for the term expiring after the 2028 election is Senator John Hoeven (Republican). Whether he seeks another term will influence the race.
Watch candidate announcements and filings, primary contests and their results, major endorsements, national conventions, campaign fundraising reports, key debates, and the November 2028 general election and subsequent certification of results. Each of these events can move market expectations.
The market resolves to the officially certified winner of the North Dakota U.S. Senate race for the seat in question in the 2028 general election; check the market page for the exact resolution rules and any requirements about certification or recounts.
A retirement or high-profile primary challenge typically increases volatility as traders reassess candidate fields, name recognition, and electability; an early clear frontrunner or consolidation behind one candidate tends to stabilize prices until new information appears.
Recent history shows strong Republican performance in federal races, significant incumbency advantages, and the importance of local economic issues like energy and agriculture; nevertheless, candidate quality, turnout variation in a presidential year, and unique local events have altered outcomes in past cycles.