| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Republican party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which party will win the U.S. House seat for New Mexico's 2nd congressional district (NM-02). The result matters for the state’s representation and contributes to the national balance of power in the House.
NM-02 covers a mix of rural areas and population centers and has been politically competitive in recent election cycles. Outcomes in the district reflect both local dynamics (economic issues, candidate quality, turnout) and broader national trends.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective views of participants and update as new information arrives; they are a dynamic signal about expectations, not a guarantee of the result.
The market's close is listed as TBD; KALSHI typically closes markets according to their stated rules, often aligned with the official election outcome or certification timeline. Check the market page for the operator’s specific close rules and any updates.
The market offers two mutually exclusive outcomes corresponding to which party wins the certified seat: a Democratic win or a Republican win for NM-02. Settlement is based on the officially certified winner for the district.
Settlement is based on the official, certified result for the NM-02 House race from New Mexico’s election authorities (including any recounts or certifications required by law), following KALSHI’s settlement rules.
Participants should follow the officially nominated major-party candidates, any notable independents or third-party entrants, and the incumbent if they are running; the New Mexico Secretary of State’s filings provide the authoritative candidate list.
Poll releases, debate performances, major campaign ad buys or fundraising reports, high-profile endorsements, local scandals or policy developments, and late shifts in turnout expectations or national political dynamics can all move prices.