| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maura Sullivan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stefany Shaheen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Carleigh Beriont | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Democratic nominee for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District. The Democratic nominee will determine who the party fields in the general election and can affect the competitiveness of that seat.
New Hampshire’s 1st District has been competitive in recent cycles and outcomes often hinge on candidate quality, local issues, and turnout. Democratic primaries in the state are shaped by a relatively small, engaged primary electorate and strong retail campaigning, so early organization and visibility matter.
Market prices aggregate traders' beliefs based on news, polling, fundraising, endorsements, and other developments; they update in real time and should be interpreted as the market’s consensus expectation at a given moment rather than a guarantee.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a candidate (or to an 'other' option if included) as defined by the market; the contract resolves to whichever individual is the officially recognized Democratic nominee for NH-01 according to state certification or the platform's settlement rules.
The market close is shown as TBD on the market page; typically a market remains open through the period when new information is arriving and closes according to the platform’s announced schedule, with final settlement based on the official party or state certification of the nominee.
If a candidate withdraws or is removed from the ballot, traders will adjust prices to reflect the changed field; the platform may relabel outcomes, pause trading, or apply administrative actions depending on its rules and the timing of the change.
Major events such as endorsements from influential local figures or the state party, credible poll releases, sudden fundraising surges or collapses, strong debate showings, and breaking scandals typically prompt the largest and quickest price movements.
Follow New Hampshire Secretary of State announcements, the state Democratic Party communications, and the market platform’s official notices; settlement will follow the recognized nominee per those official channels and the platform’s published settlement policy.