| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Moore | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $775 | Trade → |
| Kate Barr | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $592 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Republican nominee for North Carolina's 14th Congressional District. It matters because the nominee determines the Republican contender in the general election and influences campaign resources, messaging, and outside investment.
North Carolina's congressional districts have seen changes from recent redistricting cycles and contested Republican primaries in several districts, making nominations competitive and sometimes unpredictable. Local factors—such as candidate recruitment, fundraising, endorsements, and turnout in primary contests—have shaped past nomination fights and will continue to shape this race.
Prices in this market reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which outcome will be the officially certified Republican nominee; they move as new information (polling, endorsements, withdrawals, legal developments) becomes available and are not static predictions.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate or the alternative listed on the market; the winning outcome will be the candidate officially certified by the appropriate election authority as the Republican nominee for NC-14.
The nominee is determined through North Carolina's established nomination processes (typically the primary election and any applicable certification procedures); the market will resolve based on the official certification or the operator's specified resolution criteria.
If a candidate withdraws or is removed from the ballot, the market will generally adjust to reflect the updated field; final resolution follows official records—check the market rules or operator notices for how withdrawals affect open positions.
Yes. Redistricting or legal decisions that change who is eligible or alter the district can materially affect the nomination process and therefore market prices; such developments are typically reflected quickly in trader activity and market updates.
Local polling, major endorsements, large fundraising reports or expenditures, credible reporting on campaign organization, official filing/withdrawal notices, and court or election-administration rulings related to NC-14 are the most common drivers of price movement.