| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addul Ali | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $442 | Trade → |
| Jack Codiga | 97% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $83 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Republican nominee for North Carolina's 12th Congressional District. It matters because the nominee determines the party's challenger in the general election and affects strategic choices by donors, parties, and voters.
North Carolina's 12th is a U.S. House district whose boundaries and partisan balance have changed through redistricting and demographic shifts, making candidate quality and local organization important. Nomination processes are typically decided through state-run primaries or party procedures, and outcomes can be shaped by incumbency, retirements, and candidate entry or exits.
Market prices reflect the aggregated beliefs of traders about who will be the officially certified Republican nominee; they move as new public information arrives. Use prices as a real-time signal of how the field is viewed, but combine them with independent reporting on candidate filings, primary results, and official certifications.
It resolves to whichever individual is officially recognized as the Republican nominee for North Carolina's 12th Congressional District by the appropriate election or party authority when the market's resolution conditions are met.
The market's close is listed as TBD; in practice it will typically remain open until the outcome is officially determined—usually after the relevant primary, convention, or certification process—or until the exchange sets a resolution date.
Only the person officially designated as the Republican nominee at the time of resolution will be considered; a late write-in or candidate only matters if they are formally certified as the party's nominee under state or party rules.
Watch candidate filing deadlines, primary or convention dates and results, major endorsements, fundraising reports, candidate withdrawals or disqualifications, and any official certification announcements for NC-12.
If no candidate is officially certified as the Republican nominee, resolution will depend on the exchange's stated rules and the official status as recorded by state election authorities or the party; consult the market's resolution conditions for the definitive procedure.