| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alma Adams | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $183 | Trade → |
| Monaca Johnson-Williamson | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $100 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Democratic nominee for North Carolina’s 12th Congressional District in the relevant general election. The nominee determines who appears on the Democratic line in a district that can influence control of the U.S. House and local political dynamics.
North Carolina’s congressional districts have been subject to recent redistricting and legal reviews, so district boundaries and partisan composition can shift between cycles. Primaries, candidate filing windows, and party organizing at the county level are the immediate events that produce a Democratic nominee for the district.
Market prices are a real-time, crowdsourced indicator that incorporate public information, fundraising news, endorsements, and local polling; they are signals about expectations, not guarantees of outcomes.
The market will resolve to whichever candidate is the officially certified Democratic nominee for North Carolina’s 12th Congressional District for the relevant general election cycle, based on certification by the North Carolina State Board of Elections; if no nominee is certified, the market will follow the platform’s stated resolution rules.
Key dates include candidate filing deadlines, the state primary election (and any runoffs or special nomination procedures), and the official certification of primary results; because this market’s close is listed as TBD, resolution timing depends on those official events.
Redistricting can alter which voters are in NC-12 and influence who chooses to run; regardless of map changes, the market resolves on the nominee for the legally defined NC-12 at the time of official certification.
If a primary winner is later replaced, the market will resolve to the individual who is the party’s certified nominee at the time of resolution; platform-specific rules may apply if a vacancy or disqualification creates ambiguity.
Track candidate filing lists, local and state fundraising reports, endorsements from influential local leaders and organizations, county-level turnout trends, local polling, and any legal challenges or changes to the district map.