| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Bell | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Marcus Pearson | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| West Caudle | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $531 | Trade → |
| Harry Morley | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $498 | Trade → |
| Ralph Scott Jr. | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $457 | Trade → |
| Mir Yarfitz | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $208 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic Party's official nominee for North Carolina's 10th Congressional District. It matters because the nominee determines the party's challenger in the general election and shapes campaign dynamics in a competitive or targeted district.
North Carolina's 10th Congressional District is a U.S. House seat; nomination processes typically occur via the state Democratic primary or, in rare cases, party selection rules if timelines or vacancies intervene. Historical partisan lean, recent redistricting, and local political organization shape how competitive a Democratic nomination is and which type of candidate the party nominates.
Prediction market prices reflect traders' collective view of who will be the certified nominee at resolution time; use them as a real‑time signal of perceived chances rather than a guarantee. Because the market updates with new information, movements often follow campaign events, filings, endorsements, and official certification notices.
It refers to the person officially recognized as the Democratic Party's nominee for the U.S. House seat representing North Carolina's 10th Congressional District at the time the market resolves.
The nominee is normally chosen through the state Democratic primary (including any required runoffs) or, in exceptional cases like a vacancy or party appointment, by the state party's official nomination process; the timing follows North Carolina election law and party rules.
Withdrawals or disqualifications typically change which named outcome is most likely; the market will reflect traders' reactions, but the event resolves to the party's officially certified nominee as reported by state election authorities or the party.
Resolution depends on the market's stated outcome definitions, but generally the official, certified nominee recognized by the state election authority or party counts—even if that nominee is the result of a write‑in victory or a post‑primary appointment.
Prices move in response to filings, endorsements, fundraising reports, polling, and official certification. For this market, use price changes as a real‑time indicator of which candidate the market thinks will secure the party's nomination, and track news about the NC‑10 primary calendar and certification to interpret shifts.