| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ojeda | 97% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $619 | Trade → |
| Loren Bibler | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $151 | Trade → |
| Lent Carr II | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $150 | Trade → |
| Nigel Bristow | 9% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $126 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Democratic nominee for North Carolina's 9th Congressional District (NC-09); it matters because the nominee will compete in the general election for a U.S. House seat and can affect the House balance and local representation.
NC-09’s nomination process is determined by the Democratic primary (or party selection process if relevant), and the outcome depends on who files, who remains on the ballot, and who secures party support and voter turnout. District-level factors such as recent redistricting, local issues, and the presence or absence of an incumbent often shape nomination dynamics. Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs about which candidate will be the final nominee based on evolving information.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which listed outcome will be realized; treat prices as a summary of available information and liquidity rather than definitive forecasts. Because prices move with news and trading activity, check the market page for the latest quotes and event notes.
They are the discrete nominee outcomes the market creator listed for this event — typically individual candidates or an aggregate category (for example an unlisted or other nominee). Each outcome is mutually exclusive and only one will resolve as the winner.
The market close time is listed as TBD; the host will set a closing time or it may close when a formal nominee is certified. Check the market page for updates and any announced closing or resolution rules.
The market resolves to the outcome corresponding to the officially recognized Democratic nominee as defined by the market’s resolution rules — typically the candidate certified by the state party or election officials. If the party uses a convention or a court changes the result, the market follows the official certification procedure described on the market page.
Major candidate withdrawals, high-profile endorsements, fundraising or FEC disclosures, late polling releases, legal rulings affecting ballot access, or announcements changing the primary date or rules can all trigger rapid price moves.
Look at recent nomination contests in the district for patterns such as the advantage of incumbents, the impact of local endorsements, and turnout variability. Use that context to assess how durable a candidate’s support is and how vulnerable the race might be to late developments.