| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Watson | 94% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Jesse Oppenheim | 5% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Kevin Clark | 7% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $666 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the official Democratic nominee for North Carolina's 8th Congressional District; it matters because the nominee determines who will appear on the general‑election ballot and shapes campaign dynamics in the district.
NC-08's boundaries and partisan dynamics have shifted in recent cycles due to redistricting and demographic change, so primary outcomes can have outsized implications for both parties' House strategies. Local issues, candidate quality, turnout patterns, and party organization in the district are central to how nomination contests play out.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of traders working from current news, filings, polls, and endorsements; they are a real‑time signal of sentiment and information flow rather than a definitive court of record.
It will resolve to whichever individual is officially certified as the Democratic nominee for North Carolina's 8th Congressional District for the referenced election cycle, following the market operator's published resolution rules.
The close time is set by the market operator and is often tied to official nomination deadlines or certification of results; traders should monitor the market page and official election calendars for the announced close time.
The market follows the binding nomination mechanism recognized by North Carolina and the market's resolution rules—if a runoff or convention is the legally binding method to select the nominee, the certified outcome of that process will determine resolution.
Resolution depends on the candidate who is officially certified as the nominee after any withdrawals, replacements, or disqualifications; consult the market's rules for specific treatment of withdrawals and late substitutions.
Watch official candidate filings and certification notices, local polling, campaign finance disclosures, major endorsements, local media reporting on campaign organization and turnout, and any court rulings affecting ballot access.