| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyril Jefferson | 99% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Keith Davenport | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $550 | Trade → |
| Alysa Kassay | 4% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $396 | Trade → |
| Beau Blair | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $298 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will win the Democratic nomination in North Carolina's 6th Congressional District (NC-06). It matters because the nominee will compete in the general election for a U.S. House seat whose competitiveness depends on district lines and local dynamics.
NC-06 has experienced notable changes from redistricting and shifting local demographics in recent cycles, which affect who competes and how campaigns are run. The district's recent history includes both competitive primaries and general elections, and both incumbency and open-seat dynamics have influenced outcomes. Local issues, endorsements, and turnout patterns in the district's population centers play an outsized role.
Prediction market prices reflect traders' collective expectations and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time signal, not a guaranteed forecast. Use prices alongside polls, fundraising, and on-the-ground reporting to form a fuller view of the race.
The market lists a fixed set of outcomes (this market currently shows four). Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate name as displayed on the market page; check the market interface or the event description on KALSHI for the exact candidate mapping.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement normally occurs after the official Democratic primary result is certified for NC-06 and according to KALSHI's settlement rules. Monitor the market page for updates and the platform's rules for precise settlement criteria.
Redistricting can change the district's partisan balance, introduce new population centers, or shift demographic makeup, all of which alter candidate strategy and which voters campaigns prioritize. Candidates may gain or lose advantages depending on how their base aligns with the new lines.
Market handling of withdrawals follows KALSHI's event rules: platforms typically update the market description, may suspend trading on affected outcomes, and settle based on official nomination results. Check the market's notes and KALSHI's rules for the exact procedure for candidate withdrawal or replacement.
Treat market movement as a timely indicator of how new information (endorsements, polling, fundraising, news) is being interpreted by traders. Combine it with district-specific reporting, primary calendars, and campaign fundamentals rather than relying on market prices alone.