| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Foxx | 99% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $360 | Trade → |
| Chad Williams | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $320 | Trade → |
| Joey Osborne | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
| Steve Girard | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Republican nominee for North Carolina's 5th Congressional District. The nomination determines who will appear on the general-election ballot and affects local and national partisan math.
NC-05 has been shaped by long incumbencies, local political networks, and occasional redistricting changes; those dynamics influence who runs and how competitive primaries become. Nomination contests in the district typically turn on name recognition, endorsements from local party institutions, fundraising, and ground organization.
Prices in this prediction market reflect traders' collective expectations given available information and liquidity, not a definitive forecast. When interpreting market quotes for this event, consider the level of trading activity and recent news that could shift sentiment rapidly.
The market offers four discrete outcome options corresponding to the names or categories posted on the market page; consult the market interface for the exact candidate names and any catch-all/’other’ options.
The listed close is TBD; the exchange will set a final close time and resolve to the officially certified Republican nominee for NC-05 (or according to the exchange’s published resolution rules) once the relevant official results are certified.
Resolution follows the exchange’s rulebook: if a listed candidate is removed from the ballot prior to the event’s resolution criteria, the market may be adjusted or resolved to the certified nominee; check the platform’s specific runner-replacement and extraordinary-event policies for details.
Historically, primaries in this district have been influenced by incumbency advantage, strong local party networks, and relatively low primary turnout, meaning organizational strength and endorsements often matter more than short-term national trends.
Reported volume indicates how much money has changed hands so far; lower volume can mean prices are more sensitive to single trades and less robust as signals, while higher volume generally produces more stable, information-rich prices.