| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allison Jaslow | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Raymond Smith Jr. | 97% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Democratic nominee for North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District (NC-03). The nominee matters because they determine the Democratic option on the general-election ballot and shape party strategy, fundraising, and turnout in the district.
NC-03 covers parts of eastern North Carolina with a mix of coastal, suburban, and rural communities; district outcomes are influenced by local economics, demographics, and any recent redistricting. Recent cycles have seen competitive Democratic primaries and attention from state and national actors, so nomination contests can be decisive for who the party fields in the general election.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and adjust as new data—polls, endorsements, withdrawals, fundraising—arrive; they are a real-time indicator of expectations rather than a guaranteed forecast.
The event page currently lists the close as TBD; the platform will post an official close time. Closer to the close, prices typically react to final campaign events, certification timelines, and any last-minute withdrawals or endorsements.
The market resolves to the individual officially designated as the Democratic nominee for NC-03 according to the authoritative source the platform uses (normally state election certification or the party's official designation for the general election).
Key events include candidate filings and withdrawals, primary election dates and results, major endorsements, fundraising reports, significant polling releases, and any court or redistricting rulings that change the district or ballot status.
This market will reflect the nomination mechanism used in NC-03: whether a primary, a party convention, or a committee selection. Markets typically move sharply around the official selection event and resolve to whoever is formally named the nominee by the relevant authority.
Resolution follows the platform's stated rules and the official record: the market resolves to the person who is officially certified as the Democratic nominee for the general election at the time the market’s resolution conditions are applied. Any post-certification replacements or party filings are handled according to those resolution guidelines.