| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Republican party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which party will win the U.S. House seat for Minnesota's 5th Congressional District; it matters because the district's result affects the composition of the House and representation for Minneapolis-area voters.
MN-05 covers Minneapolis and nearby neighborhoods and has been shaped by urban demographics, local issues, and recent redistricting cycles. While the district has had a consistent partisan pattern in recent election cycles, candidate quality, turnout, and national environment have driven notable variations.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives; they are best read as a real-time consensus signal, not a guaranteed prediction of the final outcome.
Each outcome represents which political party is the party of the candidate officially declared the winner of the MN-05 House seat for the election referenced by the contract; the market resolves to the party of the certified winner.
Resolution timing depends on the market's contract and KALSHI's resolution rules: typically the market resolves after the official state certification or other authoritative determination for the specific election the contract references.
No — because this market is about which party wins the seat, a pre-election candidate replacement simply changes the underlying contest; the market still resolves to the party of the candidate who is ultimately certified as the winner.
Markets generally follow official certification: if a recount or legal ruling changes the certified winner before the market's resolution per KALSHI rules, the market outcome will reflect that final certified result; prolonged unresolved contests can delay resolution until an authoritative determination is available.
Resolution will rely on authoritative sources specified by KALSHI and the contract, typically the Minnesota Secretary of State's official certification and any subsequent court orders or official determinations that alter that certification as recognized by the market operator.