| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Klein | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Little | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kaela Berg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District (MN-02). The outcome matters for the general election matchup in a suburban district that can influence control of the U.S. House.
MN-02 covers suburban and exurban communities around the Twin Cities and has been politically competitive in recent cycles, with outcomes shaped by demographic shifts and turnout among suburban voters. The Democratic nominee is determined through Minnesota's nomination processes (party endorsement events and the statewide primary), and the nominee becomes the party's candidate for the general election unless a replacement or vacancy occurs.
Prices in this market aggregate traders' views about who will be the officially certified DFL nominee for MN-02 as of the market's resolution. Movement will respond to news about candidates, endorsements, withdrawals, fundraising, and official certification actions.
The market pays out for the candidate who is officially recognized as the Democratic (DFL) nominee for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District by the contract's resolution rules — typically the individual certified as the nominee by state election authorities after the primary or by the party in a lawful replacement process.
Resolution follows the contract's stated rules: generally when the official DFL nominee is certified by Minnesota election officials or as specified by the market operator. Check the market's contract text and the platform's announcements for the exact resolution trigger.
Qualifying candidates are those who meet Minnesota ballot‑access requirements and are eligible to be listed as the DFL nominee under state law and the market contract; an informal party endorsement does not equal official nomination unless it is followed by proper certification or no primary is required by law.
Endorsements and convention outcomes can strongly influence primary voters and fundraising, often shifting market sentiment, but only the official certified nominee (per state law and the market rules) determines resolution of the contract.
Announcements of candidate entry or withdrawal, major endorsements, credible polling within the district, campaign finance reports, legal challenges to ballot access, and official certification updates from the Minnesota Secretary of State or DFL party officials.