| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Republican | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will win the Missouri governorship and aggregates trader expectations about the eventual statewide winner. It matters because the governor controls state policy, budget priorities, and appointments that affect residents and businesses.
Missouri gubernatorial contests have been shaped by a mix of urban-rural divides, shifting suburban voting patterns, and state-level policy debates such as taxes, healthcare, and education. Historical turnout patterns, party organization, and recent statewide trends all provide context for how the race may unfold.
Market prices reflect the collective assessments of traders based on available information and adjust as new data arrives; they are a real-time signal of perceived chances rather than a fixed prediction.
This market offers two mutually exclusive outcomes as listed on the market page; view the KALSHI event page to see the precise candidate names and how each outcome is labeled.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page. Resolution timing follows the platform’s rules and typically occurs after official election results are certified by Missouri authorities; check the market page and KALSHI’s resolution policy for updates.
If results are contested or delayed, the market will resolve according to KALSHI’s stated settlement procedures, which may require waiting for official certification or final legal determinations; consult the contract’s resolution rules for specifics.
Price shifts reflect traders incorporating new information; large, sustained moves often follow substantial new evidence (e.g., multiple consistent polls, fundraising surges, or decisive news), while short-term volatility may reflect speculation or low liquidity.
This market is defined by the two listed outcomes. Votes for third-party or unlisted candidates can influence the overall vote distribution, but only the outcome labeled as the winner on the market page will determine settlement; verify how the contract handles write-ins or disqualified candidates via the event rules.