| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janet Mills wins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Graham Platner, 0-10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Graham Platner, 10-20% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Graham Platner, 20-30% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Graham Platner, 30-40% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Graham Platner, 40-50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Graham Platner, ≥50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the margin of victory for the winning candidate in the Maine Democratic Senate primary election. It provides a measure of how competitive the intra-party contest is expected to be based on voter sentiment and candidate strength.
Maine's electoral landscape often involves nuanced primary dynamics, shaped by Maine's unique ranked-choice voting system and local party grassroots organizing. Primary margins serve as a critical indicator of candidate viability and the degree of party unity heading into the general election. Analysts look at historical voting patterns in Maine to gauge the potential for either a landslide victory or a narrow, contested outcome.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants regarding the final vote gap; higher prices for specific ranges reflect a greater consensus that the primary will finish within that particular margin.
The margin is calculated as the percentage point difference between the winner and the runner-up in the Democratic Senate primary.
Yes, the final margin is determined by the official certified results after all rounds of ranked-choice tabulation are completed.
Demographic differences between southern Maine and the more rural northern counties often drive significant variance in how support is concentrated, impacting the final margin.
If there is only one candidate on the ballot or a singular clear winner without a traditional runner-up, the margin is typically calculated based on the total share of votes cast for that candidate versus the remaining field or zero.
Official results are confirmed once the Maine Secretary of State validates the tabulations and concludes any potential audits or recounts.