| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 to 25% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 10 to 15% | 85% | 79¢ | 87¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 15 to 20% | 16% | 4¢ | 22¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 40% and above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 25 to 30% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 0 to 5% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 30 to 35% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 35 to 40% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 5 to 10% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market trades possible ranges for the margin of victory between the first- and second-place finishers in the first round of the Costa Rica presidential election. It matters because the first-round margin is an early indicator of competitiveness, coalition dynamics, and whether the political landscape favors a clear winner or a fragmented field.
Costa Rica elects its president in a nationwide first round that can produce an outright winner or lead to a second-round contest depending on the legal threshold; the country’s multiparty system and periodic emergence of new movements make first-round results often unpredictable. Official results and any post‑election adjustments are certified by Costa Rica’s electoral authority (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones), which is the source used for settlement.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which margin range will occur and update as new information (polls, turnout signals, campaign events) arrives. Use changes in prices and traded volume to gauge how incoming news is shifting market consensus, rather than as fixed probabilities.
The market settles on the official first‑round margin as certified by Costa Rica’s electoral authority (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones). Settlement follows inclusion of all ballots and any certified recounts or legal adjustments reflected in the official certification.
Margin is defined as the difference in the official first‑round vote share between the first‑placed and second‑placed candidates, using the tally figure specified in the contract’s settlement rules (including any rounding conventions).
No — the market pays out based on the certified first‑round margin regardless of whether that margin meets the country’s legal threshold for an outright win; whether a runoff occurs is a separate legal outcome implied by the certified margin.
Yes — any ballots that are legally counted and included in the official certification (including provisional, absentee, and overseas ballots resolved by the electoral authority) will affect the settled margin.
Consider Costa Rica’s history of multi‑party competition and occasional surprise performances by new or outsider candidates, the tendency for late swings in close races, regional variations in support, and the impact of endorsements or tactical withdrawals ahead of voting.