| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harriman, 30% and above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Harriman, 25-30% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Harriman, 0-5% | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Harriman, 15-20% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Harriman, 20-25% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Harriman, 5-10% | 99% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Beaudoin, any margin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Harriman, 10-15% | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks how large the margin of victory will be in the Maine House District 94 special election; it matters because the margin signals how competitive the district is and can affect post-election actions such as recounts and party messaging.
The contest is a special election held to fill a vacancy in Maine House District 94; special elections typically have different turnout dynamics than general elections and can be driven by intensely local issues. The market currently offers eight discrete outcomes and shows active trading (total volume traded indicated), with the market close and official settlement timing specified by the market rules and official certification process.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about which margin-range outcome is most likely and update as new information arrives; treat prices as a snapshot of market sentiment, not a definitive forecast, and consult the market description for exact outcome boundaries.
The market is measuring the final certified margin of victory in District 94, broken into the discrete outcome ranges defined on the market page; it refers to the difference between the top two vote-getters as reported in the official count.
The market close time is listed as TBD; outcome settlement typically occurs after the official results are certified by Maine election authorities and after any time period for counting outstanding absentee/provisional ballots or resolving recounts, per the market's settlement rules.
Absentee and provisional ballots are often counted after election night and can narrow or widen the margin, which is particularly important in close special elections where late-counted ballots may determine the final certified margin.
Yes; if a recount under Maine law alters the certified margin enough to move it into a different outcome range, settlement will follow the market's specified rule for using the official certified result after recounts are resolved.
Consider past competitiveness in District 94, recent turnout patterns in special versus general elections, party registration and recent local results, and any recent demographic or political shifts — these contextual factors help explain why margins might be wider or narrower than typical statewide races.