| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janet Beaudoin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $57K | Trade → |
| Scott Harriman | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which candidate will win the Maine 94th House District special election; it matters because special elections can change local representation and, in close legislatures, affect the balance of power.
A special election for a state House seat is held when a vacancy occurs between regular elections; turnout and campaign intensity are often different from general elections. Local issues, candidate quality, and party mobilization typically play outsized roles in Maine House special elections, and results can be informative about local political trends.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and expectations about the reported outcome but are not guarantees; they will move as new ballots are counted, official notices are issued, and local developments occur.
The election date is set by state or local authorities and listed by the Maine Secretary of State; this market's close time is shown on the market page and may coincide with the election or certification timeline—check the market and official election notices for the current schedule.
The market lists the two outcomes corresponding to the declared candidates or the two main parties; consult the market interface for the exact candidate names and the official ballot listings from local election officials for confirmation.
Whether it affects control depends on the current partisan balance in the Maine House; in a narrowly divided chamber, one seat can tip control, so check the current seat count reported by the Maine legislature or trusted news sources to assess potential impact.
Key market-moving items include official candidate filings or withdrawals, major endorsements, local polling or credible vote tallies, early/absentee ballot returns, and breaking local news such as scandals or campaign developments.
The winner is determined by the certified vote count administered by local election officials; preliminary results are typically available on election night, with official certification following per Maine's canvass and certification process, and any recounts or contests handled under state law.