| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Letlow, 0-3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Julia Letlow, 3-6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Julia Letlow, 6-9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Julia Letlow, 9%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Fleming, 0-3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Fleming, 3-6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Fleming, 6-9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Fleming, 9%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bill Cassidy, 0-3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bill Cassidy, 3-6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bill Cassidy, 6-9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bill Cassidy, 9%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how large the margin of victory will be in the Louisiana Republican Senate primary; it matters because margins indicate the strength of the winner and can affect party dynamics and general‑election strategy.
The market sits against the backdrop of Louisiana’s competitive Senate politics and the state’s unique electoral environment. Historical contests in Louisiana have seen both narrow primaries and decisive wins, and candidate quality, turnout patterns, and any runoff rules typically shape final results.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about the certified vote margin between the top two finishers in the Republican primary; interpret them as a real‑time signal of perceived likelihoods, not as official results.
It is the difference in vote share (percentage points) between the first‑place and second‑place finishers in the Republican primary as recorded in the official, certified results used for settlement.
Settlement will use the official certified primary results published by Louisiana election authorities (e.g., the Secretary of State); the market settles after those results are certified and any specified exchange review period has ended.
The contract’s settlement definition determines which contest counts; typically this market will reference the initial Republican primary’s certified margin unless the contract explicitly specifies a later runoff result.
Settlement follows the final certified outcome after recounts or legal challenges are resolved; provisional ballots and recount adjustments that are included in the official certification are reflected in the settled margin.
Watch recent polling breakdowns, fundraising and ad buys, early and absentee voting returns, endorsements from major local figures, turnout reports from key parishes, and any late campaign developments such as debates or news events.