| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Democratic | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which candidate will win the governorship in Louisiana and aggregates trader expectations about that statewide contest. It matters because the governor sets policy priorities and can influence state and regional politics.
Louisiana elects a governor in a statewide contest that often features unique dynamics such as the nonpartisan primary (commonly called a jungle primary) and the possibility of a runoff if no candidate wins a majority. State political culture, local issues, and shifting demographic patterns across parishes shape competitive races. Recent cycles have produced both close contests and decisive outcomes, so contenders' name recognition and organization matter.
Market prices on this event reflect the collective judgment of traders and update as new information arrives; treat them as a real-time synthesis of signals, not a final prediction. Because markets can move quickly on news, check the market page for the latest updates and any resolution rules.
This market presents the two outcomes shown on the KALSHI market page; each outcome corresponds to one of the options listed there, and the market will resolve to whichever option is declared the official winner by the resolution source specified in the market rules.
Closes is currently TBD; the market will typically resolve after the official determination of the winner as defined in the market's resolution criteria—commonly the state-certified election result or another official source named on the market page—so check the market for timetable updates.
If no candidate wins a majority in the primary, Louisiana holds a runoff between the top two candidates; this market will resolve to the final, certified winner of the governorship, so markets may remain open and volatile until the runoff outcome is official.
Total volume traded ($937) measures how much money has changed hands in this market and is an indicator of liquidity and participation; lower volume can mean higher volatility and less consensus, while higher volume generally improves price stability—but volume alone does not guarantee accuracy.
Resolution will follow the source and rules specified on the KALSHI market page—typically an official state certification from the Louisiana Secretary of State or another explicitly named authority—so consult the market's resolution text for the definitive source.