| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Karen Bass | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Spencer Pratt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Adam Miller | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rae Huang | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which candidate secures the second-place position in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election. The results of this round are critical as they determine which two candidates advance to the decisive runoff election.
Los Angeles utilizes a nonpartisan primary system where all candidates compete on a single ballot. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, the top two finishers move on to a head-to-head general election. This structure often incentivizes a crowded field and forces candidates to build broad, city-wide coalitions to survive the initial primary.
Market valuations reflect the collective assessment of each candidate's polling strength, fundraising momentum, and ability to mobilize their specific voter base. Traders are essentially hedging on who is most likely to clear the field and secure the second spot in the runoff.
If a candidate receives an outright majority, they are elected directly, and there is no second-place runoff, which would resolve this market based on the official final tallies.
Because there are no party primaries, many candidates from the same political spectrum often run, leading to vote splitting that makes the race for second place highly competitive.
The market settles based on the final, certified results provided by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk.
While both candidates advance, finishing first versus second can influence media narratives, donor confidence, and perceived momentum heading into the general election.
Yes, candidates often rely on building deep support in specific council districts to ensure a high enough vote total to surpass their rivals for the second spot.