| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rick Caruso | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Asaad Alnajjar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Vincent Wali | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gina Viola | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rae Huang | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Spencer Pratt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Austin Beutner | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nithya Raman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Adam Miller | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be declared the winner of the Los Angeles mayoral contest; it aggregates traders' collective expectations and can provide a continuously updated signal about perceived frontrunners. It matters because it synthesizes diverse information—polls, endorsements, turnout signals—into a single, tradable indicator.
Los Angeles mayoral elections are nonpartisan contests with multiple declared candidates; if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round, the top two proceed to a runoff. The race is shaped by local issues such as housing, public safety, transportation, and budget priorities, and name recognition, endorsements, and ground operations have historically mattered more than national party cues. This market lists ten discrete outcomes and reflects trading on KALSHI with a total traded volume of $303,015.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of participants about which outcome is most likely given current information; they move when new facts (polls, endorsements, legal developments, turnout signals) arrive. Treat prices as a real-time information aggregator, not an oracle—they update as the underlying news and trader beliefs change.
Closes: TBD means the market does not yet have a fixed trading cutoff; trading and prices will continue until the platform announces a specific closing time or until settlement rules trigger closure based on official results.
Markets of this type typically settle to the candidate officially recognized as the winner by the relevant election authority (e.g., the Los Angeles City Clerk or official certification); consult KALSHI's stated settlement rules for the exact authority and documentation used.
The 10 outcomes correspond to ten distinct candidate names or winner options listed by the market creator; each outcome represents the market paying out if that named candidate is ultimately declared the official winner under the market's settlement rules.
Total volume traded is a measure of liquidity and interest—higher volume generally means trades are easier to execute and that the price reflects more information, but it does not guarantee accuracy or immunity to sudden news-driven shifts.
If the election proceeds to a runoff, the market will settle according to its rules—either after the runoff winner is certified or per any special settlement clause; if results are legally contested or certification is delayed, trading may remain open or settlement may wait for official resolution as specified by the platform.