| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Avit | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| J.D. Ford | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jackson Franklin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Phil Goss | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dylan McKenna | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tara Nelson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Deborah Pickett | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic Party's official nominee for U.S. House in Indiana's 5th Congressional District. It matters because the nominee determines the Democratic challenger in a district that shapes the balance of a closely divided House.
Indiana's 5th District is a competitive suburban/rural mix where candidate quality and turnout often matter more than party labels. The market aggregates current information about declared candidates, withdrawals, and local endorsements; the listed outcomes reflect the field as of the market's creation. The market remains open until the exchange specifies a close or until the state officially certifies a nominee.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about who will be the officially certified Democratic nominee; they update as new information arrives (polls, endorsements, withdrawals, filings). Use prices as a timely signal of perceived likelihood, not a guarantee of the result.
The market resolves to the individual who is the officially certified Democratic nominee for Indiana's 5th Congressional District as determined by state or local election authorities; the exchange will follow its resolution rules if certification is ambiguous.
The seven outcomes correspond to specific named candidates (and possibly a catch‑all option like 'other' if included) who were listed on the market; check the market page for the exact labels and any accompanying notes about write‑ins or 'other' outcomes.
If a candidate withdraws but another person is later certified as the party's nominee, the market will typically resolve to the person who is officially certified; if the exchange needs to determine resolution in a special case, it will follow its published rules.
This market concerns the Democratic nominee for the congressional seat (the primary outcome or any other official nomination process); it does not directly predict the general election result.
Major endorsements, large fundraising announcements, credible polling releases, legal or ethical controversies, sudden candidate withdrawals or replacements, and any changes to filing deadlines or district maps are the most likely catalysts for sharp price changes.