| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krishnamoorthi, 15% and above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Krishnamoorthi, 12-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Krishnamoorthi, 9-12% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Krishnamoorthi, 6-9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Krishnamoorthi, 3-6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Krishnamoorthi, 0-3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stratton, 0-3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stratton, 3-6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stratton, 6-9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stratton, 9-12% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stratton, 12-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stratton, 15% and above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kelly, any margin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market lets traders express views on the margin of victory in the Illinois Democratic primary for U.S. Senate; it matters because the primary margin can signal the nominee's strength heading into the general election and influence party unity and fundraising.
Illinois is a Democratic-leaning state with primaries that can range from low-turnout contests to highly contested races when seats are open or incumbents are vulnerable. Historical margins depend on factors such as incumbency, the number of credible challengers, regional turnout differences between Chicago and downstate, and national political dynamics that can energize or suppress primary voters.
Prediction market prices aggregate participant beliefs about which margin-range outcome will occur and update as new information arrives; treat them as a real-time summary of market expectations, not as fixed forecasts.
The market will settle based on the official certified vote totals for the Illinois Democratic primary as reported by the Illinois State Board of Elections; settlement timing follows the exchange's rules and typically occurs after results are certified.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined range of the margin of victory between the first- and second-place finishers in the Illinois Democratic Senate primary; the winning outcome is the range that contains the official margin.
Settlement uses the certified final tally; if provisional or absentee ballots change the margin before certification, the certified result governs. In the unusual event of legal disputes or pending recounts at certification, follow the exchange's published adjudication procedures.
Look at past Illinois Democratic primaries to understand typical margins under comparable conditions—open seat versus incumbent, crowded versus two-person contests, and turnout patterns—but adjust for current factors like candidate quality, fundraising, and the national environment.
Major influences are the leading primary candidates, their campaign operations, endorsements, and vote-getting capacity in key regions. Track official candidate filings, fundraising reports, local and statewide polling, major endorsements, and coverage in Illinois media to stay informed.