| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Elleson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Paul Friedman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rocio Cleveland | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mark Su | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Republican nominee for Illinois's 9th Congressional District; it matters because the nominee determines the party's challenger in the general election and shapes where party resources are deployed.
Illinois's 9th district covers suburban communities in northeastern Illinois; its electorate and boundaries have changed with redistricting, so local demographics and precinct composition can differ from prior cycles. Nomination fights in this district tend to attract interest from state and national Republican groups, and outcomes can be influenced by local issues like taxes, transportation, and development as well as broader national dynamics.
Market prices aggregate trader information about which listed outcome will be the certified Republican nominee; treat prices as evolving, real‑time indicators that update as news, fundraising, endorsements, and legal events occur.
The market close is listed as TBD; settlement will follow the official certification of the Republican nominee for IL-09 by Illinois election authorities or according to the platform's resolution rules — check the market page and resolution policy for updates.
Each outcome corresponds to a candidate name shown on the market page at listing time; review the market's outcome list to see the exact candidates the market is tracking.
Settlement is based on the official result recorded by Illinois election authorities: the certified winner of the Republican primary, or, if applicable under state law and the platform rules, a party appointment or other certified change.
If a listed candidate withdraws or is disqualified before certification, the platform's resolution procedures dictate whether outcomes are adjusted, removed, or left to final certification; such events typically change market prices and may delay settlement until certification is clear.
Key sources include Illinois State Board of Elections filings and certification notices, local newspapers and broadcast outlets covering the district, campaign press releases and finance reports, and announcements from county GOP organizations and candidate events.