| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Biss, 16%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniel Biss, 12-16% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniel Biss, 8-12% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniel Biss, 4-8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniel Biss, 0-4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kat Abughazaleh, 0-4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kat Abughazaleh, 4-8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kat Abughazaleh, 8%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Laura Fine wins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which margin of victory will occur in the Illinois 9th Congressional District Democratic primary; it matters because the size of the margin can indicate candidate strength, intra-party dynamics, and potential challenges for the general election.
The IL-09 Democratic primary takes place in a district that has recently leaned Democratic, where factors like incumbency, local endorsements, and turnout patterns shape outcomes. Primary contests can be decided by wide or narrow margins depending on the number of contenders, the intensity of campaigns, and timing of vote counting for mail and provisional ballots.
Markets for this event are structured as discrete outcomes (this market lists nine options) that correspond to predetermined margin ranges; settlement follows the official, certified result reported by Illinois election authorities rather than preliminary election-night numbers.
It refers to the difference in vote share between the top two vote-getters in the Democratic primary, measured per the official certified result; the market maps that difference into one of the market's predefined outcome bins.
Settlement typically occurs after the state or local election authority certifies the primary result for IL-09; the market will use the official certified margin and the exchange will publish the settlement condition and timing.
Because Illinois counts mail and provisional ballots that arrive or are verified after election night, margins can change during the canvass and certification period; markets settle on the certified final margin, not initial returns.
Consider incumbency effects, the district's recent partisan lean, how prior primaries behaved in terms of turnout and margin, and whether the current field is crowded—each can materially influence how wide or narrow the final margin is.
If the official certified outcome is contested, undergoes recounts, or is legally overturned, the exchange will follow its published dispute and settlement rules and ultimately settle based on the final official determination specified by state authorities or the exchange's adjudication process.