| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Simmons | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jan Schakowsky | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nick Pyati | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kat Abughazaleh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniel Biss | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bushra Amiwala | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hoan Huynh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Polan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Phil Andrew | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Howard Rosenblum | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Laura Fine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Democratic nominee in Illinois's 9th Congressional District primary. It matters because the Democratic nominee in this heavily Democratic district will likely determine who holds the seat in the general election and influences House balance and local policy priorities.
Illinois's 9th District covers parts of Chicago and nearby suburbs and has a history of electing Democrats; recent cycles have been shaped by incumbency advantages, local demographic trends, and periodic redistricting. Primary contests here typically hinge on local name recognition, endorsements, fundraising, and how candidates position themselves on district-specific issues such as transportation, housing, and suburban economic concerns.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about which listed outcome will be the officially certified Democratic nominee; they update as new information (polling, endorsements, fundraising, withdrawals) arrives. Treat the market as a real-time, continuously updating signal about how observers view each candidate's chances rather than a fixed prediction.
The market will resolve to whichever candidate is officially designated as the Democratic nominee for Illinois's 9th Congressional District by the appropriate election authority or by the market's stated resolution rules; check the market rules for the precise resolving authority and date.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate named in the market's outcome list (and sometimes categories like 'Other' or 'No Nominee'); the operator included all candidates who met listing rules at market creation.
If a listed candidate withdraws or is disqualified, the market typically updates or resolves according to the platform's rules—traders should consult the market's resolution policy for how late changes are handled and watch for announcements from the market operator.
Key events include major endorsements, campaign finance disclosures, high-quality local polling, candidate debates or forums, legal rulings on ballot access, and official certification of primary results.
Redistricting can change the district's partisan and demographic makeup, altering which candidate profiles and policy positions are most appealing; it can also shift incumbents into new districts or create open-seat dynamics that reshape the candidate field.