| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anabel Mendoza | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jazmin Robinson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Felix Tello | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Anthony Driver Jr. | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Reed Showalter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rory Hoskins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Richard Boykin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Melissa Conyears Ervin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| La Shawn Ford | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kina Collins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| David Ehrlich | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jason Friedman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Thomas Fisher | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic nominee for Illinois's 7th Congressional District; the nominee decides who will appear on the general-election ballot as the Democratic candidate in that district, which matters for party strategy and voter representation.
Illinois's 7th covers parts of Chicago and nearby suburbs and has a recent history of competitive Democratic primaries when seats are open or incumbents face credible challengers. Redistricting, local political organizations, and demographic shifts in the district shape who runs and who can build a winning primary coalition. The field size and timing of official filings determine which names appear on the ballot and in this market.
Prices in this market aggregate traders' views about which listed candidate will be the officially certified Democratic nominee; they move as new information arrives (endorsements, filings, withdrawals, fundraising, polling). Treat market prices as a real-time indicator of consensus rather than a guarantee of outcome, and consult official election authorities for certification details.
Settlement will follow the market's published rules and use the candidate who is officially certified as the Democratic nominee for Illinois's 7th Congressional District by the relevant election authority; check the market page for the exact settlement condition and any announced close date.
Outcome lists are based on declared candidates, ballot filings, and market creator decisions; markets may add outcomes if new candidates qualify or include an 'Other' outcome for late entries—review the market's event notes or trade history for updates.
Rapid moves typically reflect new information such as endorsements, withdrawal announcements, fundraising reports, polling releases, or campaign scandals; verify the underlying news and consider whether the development affects certification, turnout, or the candidate's ability to compete.
A withdrawal or disqualification will likely change trader expectations and prices, but the market will ultimately settle on the officially certified nominee; whether an outcome is removed or labeled depends on market rules and timing relative to official certification.
Key dynamics include ward- and neighborhood-level organizing in Chicago, endorsements from influential local officials and unions, turnout among specific demographic groups, the strength of candidate field-building (volunteers and precinct operations), and any effects from recent redistricting that change the electorate makeup.