| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 120 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many seats the TISZA option will win in the next Hungarian parliamentary election; it matters because seat counts determine whether a party or alliance can form or influence government policy. Tracking seat outcomes provides a clearer view of legislative power than vote shares alone.
Hungary elects its National Assembly under a mixed electoral system that combines single-member constituencies with a compensatory national list, producing a 199-seat parliament. Recent cycles have been shaped by shifting party alliances, turnout patterns, and institutional rules that affect how votes translate into seats. The identity and role of TISZA within that system—whether a party, alliance, or list—will determine its strategy and constituency targeting.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about TISZA’s eventual seat total; they update as new information (polls, alliances, results) arrives. Remember that markets reflect probabilities implied by trading activity and will move before and after election-day developments.
The market resolves to the official, certified number of seats credited to TISZA for the National Assembly after the election authority completes vote counting and seat allocation according to Hungary’s electoral rules.
Preliminary results and projected seat allocations typically appear on election night, but the final certified count is published by Hungary’s election authority after all tallies, absentee ballots, and any recounts or formal challenges are processed.
Seats come from two sources: winners in single-member districts and seats from the national list distribution that compensates parties based on their aggregate vote; success in district races and list vote share both matter for the final seat tally.
Announcements of formal alliances, strategic withdrawals of candidates, changes in key constituency candidates, major polling updates, or significant political events or scandals can materially alter expectations about seat outcomes.
Legal challenges and recounts can delay the official certification and occasionally change margin-sensitive district results; the market will adjust as authoritative information about altered district outcomes and any reallocated seats becomes available.