| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 56 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 64 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 68 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many seats the Scottish National Party (SNP) will win in the next Scottish Parliament election; it matters because seat totals determine governing majorities and coalition possibilities in Scotland's devolved legislature.
The Scottish Parliament currently has 129 seats allocated by a mixed member proportional system (constituency + regional list). The SNP has been a dominant party in recent Scottish elections, and outcomes hinge on both constituency wins and regional list performance amid debates over independence, public services, and economic issues.
Prediction market prices summarize traders' assessments of which seat-range outcome is most likely; interpret prices as the market’s aggregate view rather than a fixed forecast, and always check the market's resolution rules for how official seat counts are used.
Resolution follows the market's published rules and is typically based on the final certified Scottish Parliament seat totals as declared by the official electoral authorities after counts and any certified recounts; the market close date is listed on the market page (currently shown as TBD).
The market is divided into four mutually exclusive outcome ranges covering possible SNP seat totals; the exact numeric ranges are shown on the market page and the winning outcome will be the range that contains the official final seat count for the SNP.
Yes—the event asks for the SNP’s total number of seats in the Scottish Parliament, which includes both constituency seats and regional list seats as reported in the official results.
Markets typically use the final certified results after any recounts; if a contest is legally postponed or unresolved, the market’s resolution will follow the specific contingency rules published by the market operator, so consult the event rules for exact treatment.
Late polling swings, high-profile campaign events or scandals, decisive tactical voting campaigns among unionist or pro-independence parties, and turnout shocks in key constituencies are the main developments that can materially change market assessments shortly before and during counting.