| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 28 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 31 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 34 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 37 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many seats the Historic Pact will win in Colombia's Chamber of Representatives, a measure of the coalition's legislative strength and its ability to influence or pass its agenda. It matters because seat totals determine coalition bargaining power, committee composition, and the ease of advancing policy priorities.
The Historic Pact is a left-leaning coalition that emerged as a major political force in recent national elections and is associated with President Gustavo Petro and allied movements. The Chamber of Representatives is the lower house of Colombia's Congress; its composition shapes lawmaking, budget approval, and oversight. Seat outcomes reflect both national political trends and localized support across electoral districts.
Market odds aggregate traders' information and expectations about which seat-range outcome will be realized; they move with new information such as polls, campaign events, and official results. Treat market prices as real-time indicators of collective expectations, not guaranteed forecasts.
Each outcome corresponds to one mutually exclusive range or count of seats for the Historic Pact as defined by the market creator; when the market resolves it will pay out against the one outcome that matches the official certified seat total.
The market's close time is listed as TBD; resolution will be based on the official, certified seat allocation for the Historic Pact in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as published by Colombia's electoral authorities.
Seats in the Chamber are allocated at the district level according to Colombia's electoral rules, so the number of seats a party or coalition wins depends on its vote share in each district, the district magnitude, and the applicable seat-allocation formula and list rules.
The Historic Pact is a coalition of left-leaning parties and movements anchored by figures associated with President Gustavo Petro and allied organizations; individual district-level leaders and local party machines also play a crucial role in converting votes to seats.
Key items include official and reputable district-level polls, candidate list announcements or defections, major endorsements or scandals, regional election results that act as bellwethers, and any official electoral authority updates or rulings that affect candidate eligibility or vote counting.