| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 8 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 9 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 11 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 12 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 13 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 14 and above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many U.S. House seats Democrats will win in Texas in the specified election cycle. The outcome matters because Texas seat totals affect the balance of power in the U.S. House and signal regional political shifts.
Texas has been a Republican-leaning state for decades, but demographic change, suburban trends, and targeted Democratic campaigns have made several districts competitive. Redistricting, retirements, and national political dynamics have repeatedly reshaped which House races are winnable in the state. Historical swings in turnout and campaign investment have produced notable variations in Democratic performance from cycle to cycle.
Market prices aggregate many traders' views about which exact seat-total outcome will occur; a higher price for an outcome indicates stronger market support for that outcome relative to others. Prices are not guarantees; they update as new information (polls, certifications, legal outcomes) becomes available.
The market offers eight mutually exclusive outcomes that correspond to different possible totals of U.S. House seats won by Democrats in Texas in the relevant election; exactly one outcome will resolve as correct based on the final certified seat count for that cycle.
The event resolves when the exchange declares the official resolution, typically after the state’s final certified results (including runoffs, recounts, and settled legal contests) are available and any applicable exchange resolution rules are satisfied.
Runoffs and special elections that affect the final certified U.S. House seat total for Texas are included in the outcome; contested seats remain unresolved until certification and any adjudication required by the exchange are complete.
The market measures the number of U.S. House seats Democrats win under the districts as contested in the specified election cycle; if maps change before the election, the market outcome reflects seats won under the maps used for that cycle.
Key movers include new district-level polling, surprise retirements or candidate scandals, major endorsements or funding shifts into competitive districts, returns from runoffs or recounts, and changes in turnout forecasts tied to local or national races.